New US Restrictions
leadership in TPLF get Visa Restrictions
We haven’t seen much Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week, however he was able to find time to address a concern in the Horn of Africa.
On June 18th the State Department issued a Press Release regarding the situation that continues to fester in Ethiopia. Under his authority under Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. The use of this act allows the Secretary to issue visa restrictions against senior members of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) along with members of their immediate families. This move will have some unpacking required to explain this.
One train of thought is that this move is a pinprick. It is a quick action that can be implemented in a quick and sometimes covert action. Often this can be a precursor to having bank accounts and properties in the United States seized as well. When combined these actions are just part of the toolkit that can be employed by the United States against Nefarious actors.
Another key question is why was this action taken now? Over the last month there have been constant reports that the Tigray Security Forces (TSF) and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) have been massing troops in Tigray to resume hostilities. Both sides had clashes earlier this year in the region as well. The spike in tensions have caused Hundreds of Thousands of Northern Ethiopians to flee their homes in the first six months of the year.
One of the motives of the restrictions has become clearer. In a region that becomes more virulent by the hour the US is signaling that it will support efforts that promote Peace and Accountability. Holding people accountable using this method often yields more productive results than by naming and shaming. It also sends a clear signal that Security in the Horn of Africa is a Paramount interest of the Administration.
In the statement released by the State Department it was stated ““We will continue to use all tools available to expose and promote accountability for TPLF officials and other individuals who threaten that peace and stability in the region,” That quote itself is a very open-ended statement.
Could this mean that potential sanctions be in the works regarding Eritrea? They were a party in 2022 Conflict and have a checkered history when it comes to relations with Addis. Another concern concerns the track of the proxy war that is ongoing in Sudan. There have been unverified reports that if necessary General Burhan and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) could intervene if fighting renews on the side of the TPLF. It is widely known that the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have launched Drone strikes against the SAF. On one occasion so far this year the SAF has launched strikes on Ethiopian Territory in retaliation.
To put it simply the action by the State Department in recent days has multiple goals. It seeks to hold one party that is driving one of the crises active within Ethiopia, secondly by taking this action the Administration is trying to encourage other actors that this fate awaits them if/when conflict is renewed soon. Also, it can be a way to encourage the TPLF that it’s time for some new leadership.
Let’s see how this course of action will pan out..
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