Is it back?

New reports of Piracy off the Horn of Africa

An old phenomenon may be returning to East Africa. Reports of incidents like this occurring have not taken place in more than a decade. So why is it returning now?

The issue that is being referred to is acts of piracy off the coast of Somalia. These are actions that have mostly disappeared from a public view. In several instances they have been replaced by actions launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea specifically around the Bab-El-Mandeb Straits. So, know it is time to ask a classic journalistic question. Why Now? And more specifically, who is benefiting from this?

First off is there really anything to draw anything more than a casual interest? The numbers are not enough to sound alarm bells quite yet. In 2011, there were 237 attacks with 30 vessels being held by the pirates at their peak. The current number of attacks so far this year is believed to be a dozen.

Why are these incidents taking place again? There are a couple of factors that may influence interceptions. One must be the domestic political squabble about current President Hassan Shiekh Mohamud and whether he is the legitimate President of the country. His mandate officially ended on May 16^th although He amended the Constitution and changed the rules to extend his term of office for an additional year. This move has not set well with some of the leaders of the subregions and has inflamed tensions.

This means that the Somali Security Services are not focused on this returning threat but instead are focused on activities by the opposition as well as engaging Islamic Militants who control parts of the country as well.

The main international aspect is the conflict between Iran and a coalition of the United States, Israel and the Gulf States. Specifically, the blockades by both the United States and Iran at the Straits of Hormuz has forced most international shipping to find new routes. Not only has this caused an increase in the time to ship commerce and add to the global inflation woes it also provides targets of opportunities for the pirates to take advantage of.

So now we ask resolving which crisis will resolve the reemerging piracy issues off Somalia? Any peace deal between Iran and the U.S. will have a delay of some weeks in solving the issues resolving the Straits of Hormuz. The other side is that renewing a cease-fire for 60 days (about 2 months) is another delay that could work in the interests of the pirates if there is no peace deal, a decision not to extend the cease-fire or if hostilities resume.

Would a resolution in the domestic political impasse in Somalia be sufficient to defuse the situation? If there is an interest in both sides to resolve this impasse, it could be able to stop the piracy. However, the issue of whether President Mohamud being seen as a legitimate leader is a thorny issue that may create unexpected consequences in solving the issue.

There is a sense that Somalia is another proxy fight between Turkey and the UAE as well. Both countries are vying for influence in East Africa. Could we see one of these rising powers step up to end these attacks?

The United States has considerable naval assets in the Indian Ocean as well. Could they be used again in interdiction operations off the Horn? These are two points to ponder for the near future.